A time of change forces us to become better at taking decisions based on little or no information and without knowing how things are going to turn out.
This becomes much easier if we get clearer about our purpose and our values. We can also learn from our past, our future, and from people we admire. And a fifth way to make this kind of decision-making easier is to learn to find more opportunities in the situation and then choose whichever option most inspires us to long to make it happen.
If none of these approaches brings us clarity then there is a sixth, more analytical approach.
To use this, first make a shortlist of your preferred options.
Then remind yourself of the most important factors defining the context for your decision. These might include:
- Why does this issue matter, compared with your other priorities?
- Who are the key stakeholders (including yourself)?
- What outcome would most inspire you (and them)?
- What do you, and they, most want to avoid?
- When do you need to take a decision by?
- How rapidly does a solution need to be implemented?
- How long does the chosen solution need to last and how robust does it need to be to changing circumstances?
- What resources are needed for each option compared with the resources that are available?
Not all of these factors will apply in every situation. But by thinking them through you will hopefully be able to identify the ones that matter most to you now. And that alone might be enough to bring you clarity about which way forward you prefer.
If not, then the best option will be provided by the best (imperfect) mix of these competing priorities. That might not be what you would have chosen in a perfect world. But it will at least be the least bad alternative available to you now. And gaining clarity on that will get you unstuck and enable you to move forward.
So to choose between your shortlisted options, ask yourself for each one:
- What are the main Upsides of this option, the benefits and advantages it would bring?
Then rank these overall as “High, Very High, Low, or Very Low” - How likely or achievable are these outcomes and how easy will this option be to implement?
Rank this as easy (Green), difficult (Red), or medium (Amber) - What are the main Downsides of this option, the disadvantages and difficulties it would bring?
Then rank these overall as “High, Very High, Low, or Very Low”
Again, just thinking through these questions might be enough to clarify the option you prefer.
And if not, then the final step is to map your preferred options on to a grid like the one shown above. Are the Upsides and Downsides High, Very High, Low, or Very Low? And how easy are they to implement (Red, Green, or Amber)?
If you haven’t yet reached your decision then creating this map will force you to get clear on why each option has slightly higher or lower Upsides and Downsides than the others. Again, that might enable you to make your decision.
And if you’ve already made your decision then creating this map will bring you a deeper understanding of why you chose that option.
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Which Option Is Right for You?
Once you have drawn this map there is no definitive rule for which option you should pick.
Every option will bring you a mix of upsides and downsides. And we all have different attitudes to risk. So it is up to you to decide which combinations of upsides and downsides you prefer to move forward with at this time, and which you prefer to avoid.
In the example shown above, I chose Option B even though it was the most difficult to implement. That was because this option had the potential to bring me the biggest Upsides and the smallest Downsides and that was what I wanted at that particular time, in that particular situation.
This matches Elon Musk’s attitude to risk. He says:
“When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor.”
But there are no rules here — the best option for you depends on your attitude to risk and reward in your particular situation. (This is why it is important to review the ‘context’ questions first.)
In this time of change, all ways forward are going to be difficult. Thinking through the Upsides and Downsides of each option is yet another way to find the best way forward for you and the people around you.
Gaining the clarity this process brings is yet another way to make yourself (and them) more antifragile.
Are you currently choosing your way forward? Do you have a shortlist of options? Have you thought through and mapped out the Upsides and Downsides of your preferred options?
Adapted from Inner Leadership: a framework and tools for building inspiration in times of change.
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