Whenever we jump to conclusions we assume that the world still works the way it used to.
In a world that is changing so fast, this might not be true.
And that is likely to create problems.
These problems aren’t necessarily to do with whether or not our assumption turns out to be correct. The real problem is that jumping to conclusions makes us lazy. It stops us checking whether we really understand the situation. It stops us preparing for the unexpected. It stops us seeing the other opportunities (and threats) that also exist. And it stops us taking the steps we might take to maximise our chances of getting the results we want.
Avoiding all this is surprisingly easy. We only need to do four things:
- Check whether we are making any of the eight most common assumptions
- Consider what other interpretations might also be possible (and which is/are most likely)
- Get clearer on the outcome we want most, and why
- Take action to manage our downsides and make our upsides more likely
If we do these four things then we might still end up taking the same action — and events beyond our control might still happen. But by thinking through a situation more deeply, getting clearer on what we really want and why, and ensuring that we have done everything we can to make that happen, we increase our focus, our inspiration, and our enthusiasm. We give ourselves the very best chance of achieving the outcomes that matter most. And if events still don’t turn out in the way we wanted, then we also give ourselves the most energy, insight, and flexibility to be able to quickly find a new way forward.
In this time of increasing change, all these things will be invaluable. They will help to make you antifragile.
Have you ever made an assumption or jumped to a conclusion that turned out to be wrong? What were the consequences? Are you making any assumptions about the projects you are working on now? Is it worth taking the time to consider what other interpretations might also be possible and what extra action you might take to achieve the outcomes that matter most to you?
Adapted from Inner Leadership: a framework and tools for building inspiration in times of change.
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