Whenever we jump to conclusions we assume that the world still works in the way it used to. And in a world that is changing so fast, this is unlikely to be true. And it is likely to create problems.
These problems aren’t necessarily to do with whether or not our assumption turns out to be correct. The real problem is that jumping to conclusions makes us lazy. It stops us checking whether we really understand the situation. It stops us preparing for the unexpected. It stops us seeing the other opportunities (and threats) that also exist. And it stops us taking the steps we could have taken to maximise our chances of getting the outcomes we want.
Avoiding all these problems is surprisingly easy. We only need to do four things:
- Check whether we are making any of the eight commonest assumptions
- Consider what other interpretations might also be possible (and which is/are most likely)
- Get clearer on the outcome we want most and why it matters
- Take actions to manage our downsides and make our upsides more likely
If we do these four things then we might still end up taking the same action — and events might still happen beyond our control. But by thinking through the situation more deeply, getting clearer on what we really want and why, and ensuring that we have done everything we can to make that outcome happen, we increase our focus, our inspiration, and our enthusiasm, and we give ourselves the very best chance of achieving the outcome we most want. And if events still don’t turn out in the way we wanted, then we also give ourselves the maximum energy, flexibility, and understanding to be able to quickly find a new way forward.
In this time of increasing change, all these things will be invaluable. They will help to make you antifragile.
Have you ever made an assumption or jumped to a conclusion that turned out to be incorrect? What were the consequences? Have you made any assumptions about the projects you are currently working on? Is it worth considering what other interpretations might also be possible and what additional actions you might take to maximise your upsides and minimise your risk?
Adapted from Inner Leadership: a framework and tools for building inspiration in times of change.
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