Whenever we jump to conclusions we assume that the world still works the way it used to.
In a world that is changing so fast, this might no longer be true. And that is likely to create problems.
Those problems aren’t necessarily to do with whether or not our assumptions turn out to be correct. The real problem is that jumping to conclusions makes us lazy. It stops us checking whether we truly understand the situation. It stops us preparing for the unexpected. It stops us seeing the other threats and opportunities that exist. And it stops us taking the steps that we could have taken to maximise our chances of getting the results we want.
If we want to avoid all these negative impacts we only need to do four things:
- Check whether we are making any of the eight most common assumptions
- Consider what other interpretations might also be possible (and which is/are most likely)
- Get clearer on the outcome we most want, and why
- Take action to manage our downsides and make our upsides more likely
After doing these four things we might still end up taking the same action as before — and events beyond our control might still happen. But by spotting our assumptions, getting clearer on what we really want and why, and ensuring that we have done everything we possibly can to make what we want happen, we increase our focus, our inspiration, and our enthusiasm. We give ourselves the very best chance of achieving the outcomes that matter most. And if events still don’t turn out in the way we wanted, then we also give ourselves the energy, insight, and flexibility to be able to quickly find a new way forward.
In this time of increasing change, all these things will be invaluable. And they will help to make us antifragile.
Have you ever made an assumption or jumped to a conclusion that turned out to be wrong? What were the consequences? Are you making any assumptions about the important parts of your life today? Is it worth taking the time to consider what other interpretations might also be possible and what extra actions you might take to increase the likelihood of getting the outcomes that matter most to you?
Adapted from Inner Leadership: a framework and tools for building inspiration in times of change.
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