In his bestselling book, Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, Malcolm Gladwell explains how we all make assumptions, all of the time. Sometimes we get these assumptions right, he says, and sometimes we get them wrong.
Then he gives a tragic example of what can happen when we get our assumptions wrong:
“Late one night, in February 1999, Amadou Diallo was sitting outside his apartment block in New York City when four police officers drove past. Deciding he looked suspicious, they backed up their car for a second look. When Diallo didn’t run, they assumed he must be challenging them: “How brazen this man is,” they thought as they got out of their car and walked towards him. And when Diallo reached into his pocket they assumed he was reaching for a gun, opened fire, and killed him instantly. Diallo, an immigrant from Guinea, had assumed the police were friendly. He was reaching for his wallet.”
You and I will hopefully never find ourselves in a situation like this. But it illustrates how bad the outcome can be if we get our assumptions wrong. And in this time of massive change, we are all having to take decisions in situations we haven’t encountered before, using assumptions based on the way the world used to work rather than the way it works now. And at the same time, the negative impacts of getting these assumptions wrong are also increasing.
What all this means is that it is rapidly becoming increasingly useful to get better at spotting and correcting our mistaken assumptions.
We can do this quickly when we learn to spot the eight most common types of mistaken assumption:
- Value judgments (“He looks suspicious.”)
- Expectations and ‘shoulds‘ (“I expect him to run.” / “I should show them my ID.”)
- Making assumptions or jumping to conclusions (“He is reaching for a gun.” / “I can trust the police.”)
and then also: - Emotional attachment to a particular outcome
- Limiting our actions by making them dependent on the behaviour of others
- Blinkered or extreme thinking
- Mistaking our feelings for truth
- Blaming and scapegoating
The good news is that if we do make any of these assumptions then we will probably have more time to spot and correct them than Amadou Diallo and the police officers did. But that time will only be useful if we put it to use: taking the time to check for our mistaken assumptions and taking different actions.
Over the next 12 months, do you expect to need to take decisions in unfamiliar situations more often or less often than before? Will the negative consequences of getting your assumptions wrong be bigger or smaller? Would it be useful to start improving your ability to notice and correct your mistaken assumptions now?
Adapted from Inner Leadership: a framework and tools for building inspiration in times of change.
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