Whenever we jump to a conclusion we assume the world still works in the way it used to.
In a world that is changing so much so fast, this assumption might no longer be true. And that is likely to create problems.
These problems aren’t necessarily to do with whether or not our assumption turns out to be correct. The real problem is that jumping to conclusions makes us lazy. It stops us checking whether we really understand the situation. It stops us preparing for the unexpected. It stops us seeing the threats and opportunities that exist. And it stops us from taking the steps we could have taken to maximise our chances of getting the results we want.
Avoiding these mistakes is relatively easy. We only need to do four things:
- Check whether we are making any of the eight most common assumptions
- Consider what other interpretations might also be possible (and which of them are most likely)
- Get clear on the outcome we most want, and why we want it
- Take action to manage our downsides, if they happen, and make our upsides more likely
After we do these four things we might still end up taking the same action — and something beyond our control might still happen. But by spotting our assumptions, getting clearer on what we really want, and why, and ensuring that we have done everything we can to make our desired outcome happen, we increase our focus, our inspiration, and our enthusiasm. We give ourselves the very best chance of achieving the outcomes that matter most. And if events don’t turn out in the way we wanted, then we also give ourselves the energy, the insight, and the flexibility to be able to quickly find new ways forward.
In this time of increasing change, all these benefits will be invaluable. They will help to make us antifragile.
Have you ever made an assumption or jumped to a conclusion that turned out to be mistaken? What were the consequences? Are you making any assumptions about your life today? Is it worth taking the time to consider what hidden risks and opportunities are lurking, and what extra actions you might take to increase the likelihood of getting the outcomes that matter most to you?
Adapted from Inner Leadership: a framework and a set of tools for building inspiration in a time of change.
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