A time of change forces us to become better at taking decisions based on little information and without knowing how things are going to turn out.
This becomes much easier when we know our purpose and values. We can also learn from our past, our future, and from people we admire. And a fifth way to make this kind of decision easier is to get into the habit of finding more opportunities in the situation and then choosing whichever option most inspires us to long to make it happen.
If none of these approaches brings clarity, there is also a sixth, more analytical approach that we can use.
To do this, first make a shortlist of your preferred options.
Then remind yourself of the key factors shaping the context for your decision. These might include:
- Why does this issue matter, compared with your other priorities?
- Who are the key stakeholders (including yourself)?
- What outcome would most inspire you (and them)?
- What do you, and they, most want to avoid?
- When do you need to take a decision by?
- How rapidly does a solution need to be implemented?
- How long does the chosen solution need to last and how robust does it need to be to changing circumstances?
- What resources are needed for each option compared with the resources that are available?
Not all these factors will apply to every situation. But thinking them through will help you to identify the ones that matter most in your current situation. And that might be enough to bring you clarity about which way forward you prefer.
If not, then your best way forward is going to be provided by the best (imperfect) mix of these competing priorities. That might not be what you would have chosen in an ideal world. But it will be the least bad alternative. And getting clarity on it will help to get you unstuck and enable you to move forward.
To choose between your shortlisted options, ask yourself for each option:
- What are the main Upsides of this option, the benefits and advantages it would bring?
Rank these as “High”, “Very High”, “Low”, or “Very Low” - How likely or achievable are these outcomes and how easy will this option be to implement?
Rank this as “Easy” (Green), “Difficult” (Red), or “Medium” (Amber) - What are the main Downsides of this option, the disadvantages and difficulties it would bring?
Then rank these overall as “High”, “Very High”, “Low”, or “Very Low”
Again, simply thinking through these questions might be enough to reveal which option you prefer.
If not, the final step is to map your preferred options on to a grid like the one shown above. Are the Upsides and Downsides High, Very High, Low, or Very Low? And how easy are they to implement (Red, Green, or Amber)?
If you haven’t already reached a decision then creating this map will force you to get clear on why each option has slightly higher or lower Upsides and Downsides than the others. And that again might enable you to make your choice.
If you have already made your decision then creating this map will bring you a deeper understanding of why you chose that option.
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Which Option Is Right for You?
Once you have drawn this map there is no definitive rule for which option you should pick.
Every option will bring a mix of upsides and downsides. We all have different attitudes to risk. So it is up to you to decide which combinations of upsides and downsides you prefer to move forward with and which combinations you prefer to avoid, given your current circumstances.
In the example shown above, I chose Option B even though it was the most difficult to implement. That was because this option had the potential to bring me the biggest Upsides and the smallest Downsides and that was what I wanted at that time, in that particular situation.
This matches Elon Musk’s attitude to risk. He says:
“When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor.”
But there are no rules here — the best option for you depends on your attitude to risk and reward in your particular situation. (That is why it is important to review the ‘context’ questions first.)
In this time of change, all ways forward are going to be difficult. Thinking through the Upsides and Downsides of your different options is yet another way to find the best way forward for you and the people around you.
And gaining the clarity this process brings is yet another way to make yourself (and the people around you) more antifragile.
Are you currently choosing between different ways forward? Do you have a list of preferred options? Have you thought through and mapped out the Upsides and Downsides of each option?
Adapted from Inner Leadership: a framework and tools for building inspiration in times of change.
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